Hot take: I finally figured out how to find the real poll numbers everyone else misses

For months I kept seeing these wild polls saying Trump was down by like 15 points, and it just didn't match what I was seeing in my town. I got so frustrated I started digging into the crosstabs myself. The trick was looking at the 'likely voter' screen questions. A poll from a big name last week had him down 12, but their screen asked if people voted in the '22 midterms. I checked the actual voter file for my county, and turnout was way lower than usual that year. So that screen cut out a ton of his voters. When you adjust for that, the race is basically tied. Has anyone else tried pulling apart the poll methodology like this and found something similar?

2 comments

2 Comments

black.beth20d ago

Ever notice how the "likely voter" model seems to change depending on who's paying for the poll? I read an article a while back that said some pollsters use screens that basically ask if you're excited to vote, which can really skew things in a low-energy year. Your point about the midterm screen makes total sense, it would filter out a lot of casual voters. Most people just look at the top line number and call it a day, so digging into the crosstabs is the only way to get a real picture.

the_ryan20d ago

Yeah, the "excited to vote" screen is wild. I got asked that once and was like, "I'm excited to do my taxes, too," which is a lie, so maybe I skewed their data. I mean, my main voting energy goes into remembering where my polling place is.